CPI year-on-year refers to the change in the price level of this period compared to the same period last year; CPI month on month refers to the change in the current period compared to the previous adjacent statistical cycle. The formulas given by the National Bureau of Statistics are "(current period - same period last year) ÷ same period last year" and "(current period - previous period) ÷ previous period". Year on year is more suitable for observing longer trends, and month on month is more sensitive, but it is easily affected by seasonal factors. National Bureau of Statistics: What is the difference between year-on-year and month on month, and if the two appear in different directions, it does not mean that the data is contradictory to each other. They just chose different base periods for comparison.

The year-on-year growth rate in July of this year was 3.0%; The year-on-year increase in August was (103.2 ÷ 101 − 1) × 100%, approximately 2.18%; The month on month ratio in August was (103.2 ÷ 103-1) × 100%, approximately 0.19%. The year-on-year increase has decreased, but the price index is still higher than last month. The reason is that the comparative base period in August of last year has also increased.

This example explains a statistical relationship and cannot infer that gold prices will inevitably rise or fall. When reading the US CPI report, it is also necessary to verify the seasonal adjustment criteria used for year-on-year and month on month comparisons, and not directly calculate from sequences with different criteria.

Take a look at the August 2026 CPI

According to the interpretation of August 2026 data by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national CPI has shifted from a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month to an increase of 0.4%, and the year-on-year increase has rebounded to 0.8%. After deducting food and energy, the core CPI is 1.0% year-on-year. This means that short-term price changes have become stronger, while annual price increases remain at a moderate level.

This Chinese data shows a year-on-year and month on month rebound, which is different from the assumed scenario above. It is used to display multiple calibers of the same report, not US inflation data, and cannot be directly used to judge the next policy steps of the Federal Reserve.

Only looking at year-on-year growth may overlook the price changes in the past month; Just looking at the month on month ratio makes it easy to mistake a single month rebound for a sustained trend. Only by combining year-on-year, month on month, core indicators, and major sub items can we see what information has been added to this data.

How does CPI data enter gold analysis?

When studying the release of US inflation and the valuation of gold in US dollars, it is necessary to verify whether the data has changed interest rate expectations. You can analyze it according to the following steps; The example of China CPI is only used to explain statistical pronunciation:

The first step is to look at the relative expected position of the data. The actual value is lower than expected, which may lower the expectation of interest rate hikes or maintain high interest rates; Actual values higher than expected may have the opposite effect. But before release, it is necessary to confirm the expected source and time.

The second step is to check if the year-on-year and month on month comparisons are pointing in the same direction. The year-on-year and month on month rebound indicate that the short-term and long-term signals are relatively consistent; If there is a year-on-year rebound and a month on month decline, further verification of the base period and seasonal adjustments is needed.

Step three, check if the market variables are confirmed. If the reactions of the US dollar, real returns, and gold are inconsistent, do not explain the entire market solely based on "inflation positive" or "inflation negative".

Common Misunderstandings

A positive month on month ratio does not mean that prices have entered a sustained upward trend; A year-on-year decline does not mean that prices have returned to their original level. The year-on-year measurement is the change in price increase and cannot be directly equated with an absolute price decrease. For sub items such as gold jewelry prices, it is also necessary to distinguish their impact on consumer prices and international standards

Spot Gold

The pricing mechanism.

研究美国通胀发布与美元计价黄金时，需要核对数据是否改变了利率预期。可以按以下步骤分析；中国CPI示例仅用于解释统计读法：

第一步，看数据相对预期的位置。 实际值低于预期，可能降低加息或维持高利率的预期；实际值高于预期，可能带来相反影响。但发布前必须确认预期来源和时间。

第二步，看同比和环比是否指向同一方向。 同比回升、环比回升，说明短期和长期信号较一致；同比回升、环比下降，则需要进一步核对基期和季节调整。

第三步，看市场变量是否确认。 美元、实际收益率和黄金的反应如果不一致，就不要只用“通胀利多”或“通胀利空”解释全部行情。

常见误读

环比为正，不等于物价已经进入持续上涨；同比下降，也不等于价格回到原来的水平。同比衡量的是涨幅变化，不能直接等同于绝对价格下降。对于黄金饰品价格这类分项，还要区分它对居民消费价格的影响和国际现货黄金的报价机制。